What might the world look like in 2200?

[Nikephoros]

Geopolitics please.

[Chris]

Truthfully, it depends on too much to make anything, but a vague prediction.

Chris

[Straha]

Based on various long-term trends(western decline since 1914, india's um diversity)

Western civilization is as gone in Europe as the western empire was in the late 6th century. The west's remaining enclaves are a restored Rhodesia, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, where Europeans fled to once the continent began being wracked by massive civil wars between natives and muslims, and the US became too broke and poor to be an attractive destination.

The US is a full part of latin american civilization and no longer a world hegemon. Over two centuries of rising inter-marriage combined with most immigration being from latin america has rendered the US rather less racially diverse than present(lots of light tan people with dark hair/eyes though).

India is long gone as a nation. The states that formed post-Indian breakup likely are either occasionally puppetized/colonized by Russia, China or if Persia is a coherent nation occasionally persia.

China has rebuilt itself after decades, or up to a century disunity following the collapse of the Red Dynasty. Japan, Korea, the states of indochina and much of the pacific rim are Chinese vassals.

Turkey is likely a failed-state and ex-empire that emerged in the wake of the fall of the US. The Turkish state had great amounts of influence in the middle east and north africa.

Russia has recovered from a second round of collapse(first was in the late 1980s and the second one was in the 2080s), and is once again a rising power in Eurasia.

[MNPundit]

Haha, Nik' made Straha blow his wad.

[general_tiu]

Hmm...assuming that there is no some stupid Earth government...

The US had its share of decline in the 2100s but eventually recovered. It was essentially the US as it was in 1850s, but letting the other nations influence the world. No Mexican annexation beyond Baja. US is at least 50% White, 30% Hispanic, and the rest, including blacks, take up the slack. Military is still good and recovered the early 20th century traditions. US politics much like today, but there are now five competing major parties: Democrat, Republican, Progressive, Libertarian, and Nationalist.

Russia recovered like in Straha's scenario. For some reason they never regained Belarus and Ukraine, which went their own way and looks to European countries for protection.

India exploded and never recovered. It was the scenario in Africa in the 1980s today, with a rump India, alongside Pakistan and Bangladesh the only space-travel capable nations and even then that was limited.

East and Southeast Asia was divided by Chinese-influenced East Asian Zone, and a Japanese and Korean Pacific Co-Operation Belt. These three countries are practically lording over Asia. Australia and NZ essentially control the Pacific states. China was only keeping the name of People's Republic of China for nostalgia. Japan, Korea and the Pacific Co-Operation belt are the main porn producers on Earth, as a reaction to ultra-feminist attempted influence in the West. Yes, Asian porn was still alive and kicking well. The PCB was now the animation-center of humanity, after the eventual triumph and victory of the Japanese-Korean-Chinese cartoon style over the American ones. Even US comics like Batman are no different from a Japanese manga or a Korean manhwa save language and setting.

Mexico declined but eventually recovered by 2200 by a jingoistic though benevolent military dictatorship. Said dictatorship restored Mexico's economy and pride. Latin America remains much the same as ever with some minor border adjustments. Also more militaristic; all Central American states had re-instated their armies by 2200, and slavishly loyal to Mexico. Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina are still the powers of Latin America.

The European Union was a failure though it still exists today, it was just viewed like the Holy Roman Empire; neither European or a Union. Euro the currency of off-earth European colonies. Britain regained its teeth, no longer a EU member and took Ireland back to a revitalized Commonwealth, albeit with only Britain, Ireland, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. But the Germans, French, Italians, and Spaniards are never to be left behind. The real darkhorse is Poland. The Muslim and black populations are assimilated, but not with great violence. Religion, especially Catholicism, revived in Europe as a reaction.

Africa has been stabilized under South Africa's hegemony in the South, Nigeria's on the west, and Kenya on East Africa. The real WTH part is that France re-annexed back its former colonies, and the DRC being partitioned into Belgium [Wallonia], Flanders, France, and Germany. Brutal European re-colonization, but then who remembers the Rwanda Genocide these days?

The visions of a pan-Islamic caliphate are attempted and failed. Egypt now annexed Libya and North Sudan. Saudi Arabia exploded and divided into two, a rump Saudi Arabia and Hejaz under the Jordanian Kingdom [and was still called Jordan by 2200] and included Palestine. Israel still exists with still a strong space presence, but now its economy is tied to Jordan. Saudi Arabia was doomed. Iraqi Kurdistan seceded long ago but Iraq remained stable, as Afghanistan which controls the independent state of Baluchistan for the simple reason of getting access to the sea.

[general_tiu]

And I forgot. Peak oil was in the 2040s. Later than they thought. But the environmental crowd had at least prepared them in time to wean them away. Or mainly in time in the west.

[subversivepanda]

I'm tempted to argue that, contra the stereotypical view of the future holding that there will be 3-5 continent-sized superpowers with boring names (Asian Union! African Union! South American Union!), there will actually be more nations in the future than there are today. That's been the trend for the past fifty years, at least, and I don't see it ending anytime soon. Nationalism remains a powerful force, for good or ill (I'd say ill, but you can make a good case either way), and in this day and age it's hard to simply invade and annex another country.

However, 200 years is far enough in the future that it's really impossible to extrapolate from current conditions. Doubtless the trend that I've described will be eclipsed by counter-trends, some of which may be unimaginable to us. What if sea levels rise precipitously due to global warming? What if the Martians invade? And so on.

[Nikephoros]

Good point subversivepanda.

I hate the "One World Governments" in SF, mostly because it's a sign of laziness.

[67th Tigers]

Originally Posted by general_tiu

And I forgot. Peak oil was in the 2040s. Later than they thought. But the environmental crowd had at least prepared them in time to wean them away. Or mainly in time in the west.

That late? I remember the peak occurring about a decade back....

[Nikephoros]

My thoughts:

Some shuffling in the Caucasus and maybe the Balkans.

The US shrinks in global influence as China and India rise. The US is still a great power, some may argue superpower, but it is not a hyperpower.

The EU has shifted around quite a bit, but I'm not sure if it will last that long or not. Turkey had given up it's bid for the EU by 2020.

Israel doesn't exist anymore. Palestinians and Israeli Arabs overtook the Jewish population by about 2090. The new Palestinian state retains most of Israel's administration. Long before that, Israel gave Jewish settlers in the West Bank the choice to leave or become Palestinian citizens. Whenever Israel was "abolished" it absorbed the West Bank and Gaza, and returned the Golan Heights to Syrian control.

There is talk of a Pan-Arab state, but Egypt refuses to take part in any plan because they still seek ever closer ties to Europe.

There are colonies in the Solar System. The US was the first country to land on Mars, but the Moon was first developed by the ESA. The US was forced to play catchup, but managed to set up the first settlement on Mars. By this time, resource extraction is well underway on the Moon and Mars, and some forays are working tirelessly on mining asteroids.

The resulting resources have completely changed the world. Most countries that we consider "developing" today have solved much of their economic problems simply because there became more resources to spare.

The move to other sources of energy made continued oil production much less profitable, so that market has ceased. Saudi Arabia is a wreck, along with the other Gulf states. Foreign aid is a major source of income for them.

Fusion has finally been developed sometime during the 21st Century, and most first-world nations use it much to the exclusion of other sources. For poorer nations, Fission reactors are still a common sight.

[WKL]

A bunch of great powers jockeying for influence. No big wars happen except for the small ones in third world countries as it's too expensive to wage war. Make money, not war is the new motto of the world.

Now, just like all predictions in the far future, I get the feeling every one of us will be wrong unless we be very vague.

[Das Legio]

Does either India or China have enough nukes to blow a path through the Himalayas using them like giant super-dynamite?

[Straha]

Originally Posted by subversivepanda

I'm tempted to argue that, contra the stereotypical view of the future holding that there will be 3-5 continent-sized superpowers with boring names (Asian Union! African Union! South American Union!), there will actually be more nations in the future than there are today. That's been the trend for the past fifty years, at least, and I don't see it ending anytime soon. Nationalism remains a powerful force, for good or ill (I'd say ill, but you can make a good case either way), and in this day and age it's hard to simply invade and annex another country.

However, 200 years is far enough in the future that it's really impossible to extrapolate from current conditions. Doubtless the trend that I've described will be eclipsed by counter-trends, some of which may be unimaginable to us. What if sea levels rise precipitously due to global warming? What if the Martians invade? And so on.

The reason that we keep gettin new nations is the west holding to 20th century memes of 'self-determination' AND having the military power to make it stick. As the west's decline continues expect that to end, once we're too broke due to trillions of dollars in dodgy money being made by financiers or the pensions bomb to enforce it. We'll see a return to national borders being decided by force.

[Grand Admiral Cho]

First of all this is a "dull" future assuming no really course-changing developments in the next two centuries.

The world is rather more united than it was in the XXIst Century but nothing approaching a true world government or EU levels. An evolved, enlightened version of the UN oversees a true global market unhindered by protectionism (with a few exceptions), a global court system for international criminals, and peacekeeping efforts. The global economy bares some discussion here: neoliberalism and free-trade has peaked and talks of a global currency are in place as stable rates have been established for the great regional currencies (the Euro, the US-Pacific Dollar, the Yuan, the Rupee, etc.).

The United States is still the most powerful country on Earth thanks to its dominance in space. In addition to having the largest and greatest aerospace and naval forces on Earth it has massive space forces that is equal to that of the next two largest (the Chinese and EU) combined.It was the first to return to the Moon and land on Mars. Later on it sent probes to neighbouring star systems and began establishing bases and permanent settlements on the Moon and Mars. Martian colonization has been extensive with a multinational terraformation project currently taking place. The US has space bases all the way from Mercury to beyond Pluto. The US has a slim white majority with a large Hispanic minority and the Asians are in number almost equal to that of blacks. After the bottoming out of theological liberalism, New Ageism, and cultic movements in the mid 21st Century the American religious scene is a strange combination of theological conservatism and strong rationalism/skepticism. Most American Christians are evangelical and with a strong Calvinist undercurrent with Pentecoastalism largely dead. Catholics form a strong minority in addition to "pure" Asiatic religions as opposed to New Age Hari Krishna type movements. However almost a quarter of the population is nonreligious and on a secular level most people are accepting of atheism. Most people favour restraint in moral matters with homosexual marriage legal in most states and abortion largely a dead question with the existence of artificial wombs.

Canada and most of Latin American are part of the Pan-American Economic Union which uses the dollar and has strong political integration. In fact Cuba and some other Caribbean islands have become part of the USA. Latin America is quite prosperous, stable, and democratic although still not equal to the United States. Brazil is a strong power in its own right and maintains a space presence.

China is one of the Big Four superpowers that dominate the world (along with PAEU, EU, and India). It is democratic now although with someone of an authoritarian streak (think present day Japan or South Korea). It has the world's largest economy and army and has extensive interests in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The yuan is a staple currency in most of SE and Central Asia and also Russia. Korea and Japan however are part of PAEU and remain strong American allies. Australia and New Zealand also are PAEU members.

India is another Big Four and is the world's most populous nation. Caste discrimination is largely out and India has reconciled with Pakistan. The Rupee is a regional currency for South Asia including in Pakistan. Indian economy continues to boom thanks to it being one of the two remaining large pools of cheap labour.

Russia is the nation to suffer the worst since 2010. It's economy and population collapse bottomed out by the late 21st Century but it never again recovered its posession of power. Russia is largely the junior partner with China in the Eurasiatic Economic Union. It maintains a decent military and economy but with Siberia now majority Chinese it is at best a great power.

The European Union is heavily integrated from Iceland to Iraq. The Euro remains a strong currency and after birth-rates picked up in 2060 in the Pan-European Awakening movements managed to keep a stable population (though the population is hardly booming). Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and Libya are all EU members and it maintains a large space presence along with a good, advanced military.

The Middle East's Islamic extremnism is largely gone and it has successfully transitioned to a post-oil economy although there were rough patches. Many of its nations as noted above are members of the EU and the rest are considering membership. Most of the nations are what can be called authoritarian democracies.

Africa although still the poorest region in the world is not so behind as compared to 2010. It is relatively stable and prospering and as in the Middle East are dominated by rather controlling democracies. AIDS bottomed out Africa in the mid 21st Century but since then has largely been exterminated with the existence of vaccines and treatment.

All in all the world is heavily developed and highly optimistic. Almost two centuries and a half of relative peace has occurred and its been a century and a half since a major war. Most wars that remain are largely brushfire conflicts. The main sources of energy is nuclear fusion and most ecological problems have been controlled. The world population is stable at around 10 billion with a more equal birth rate of around 2.2.

[Straha]

GMB, can I adapt your scenario into a map?

[Nikephoros]

Honestly, I think general_tiu and subversivepanda are closest to what will happen.

Not that I agree with general_tiu entirely...

[Grand Admiral Cho]

Originally Posted by Straha

GMB, can I adapt your scenario into a map?

Yes feel free to do so. In fact I'm delighted someone has suggested that.

[Grand Admiral Cho]

Originally Posted by Nikephoros

Honestly, I think general_tiu and subversivepanda are closest to what will happen.

Not that I agree with general_tiu entirely...

What would you say are problems in my projection?

[MNPundit]

Originally Posted by General Mung Beans

What would you say are problems in my projection?

See, we knew you could be a valued poster.

I think the problem is assuming the Space militarization. Sure it could be militarized but that stuff is really expensive. I also can't see how the EU can survive unless it gets over the issue of German economic policies.

[Grand Admiral Cho]

Originally Posted by MNPundit

See, we knew you could be a valued poster.

I think the problem is assuming the Space militarization. Sure it could be militarized but that stuff is really expensive.

Well this isn't just one but two centuries into the future so think back to 1800. To almost everyone the militarization of the air was considered a wild fantasy and even in 1910 most powers would have been bankrupt had they tried to build a large air force.

I also can't see how the EU can survive unless it gets over the issue of German economic policies.

Well I'm not an EU expert so what economic policies do your precisely mean?

[evilmittens]

We have too many people named General and Grand Admiral on this board. Fuck.



I will be emperor in 2200.



Look at the change from 1910 to now. way too much to really get any true idea. Technology will determine it more then anything.

[MNPundit]

Originally Posted by Grand Admiral Cho

Well I'm not an EU expert so what economic policies do your precisely mean?

German fiscal austerity demands (to be fair helped along by a lot of others) puts lots of pressure on the southern countries because what they most need right now is NOT fiscal austerity. This increases the chances that the countries will leave the Euro.

[The Kiat]

You people are real optimistic, you know that. I mean, you all assume we won't be extinct by then.

[bobc]

Originally Posted by subversivepanda

However, 200 years is far enough in the future that it's really impossible to extrapolate from current conditions. Doubtless the trend that I've described will be eclipsed by counter-trends, some of which may be unimaginable to us. What if sea levels rise precipitously due to global warming? What if the Martians invade? And so on.

Exactly. Also either developing technology or global collapse will make any trend lines meaningless. Without global collapse, technology will be unimaginably more advanced by 2200, perhaps based upon scientific breakthroughs not yet thought of.

[Das Legio]

Originally Posted by MNPundit

German fiscal austerity demands (to be fair helped along by a lot of others) puts lots of pressure on the southern countries because what they most need right now is NOT fiscal austerity. This increases the chances that the countries will leave the Euro.

It's a damn good thing they leave it too.

The best thing for the EU would be to just hand over absolutely all of the financial authority to Germany and just accept that German dominion over the continent is fro the best.